Commentary

Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy

Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | India's employment challenge: 20 million jobs need to be created each year

By Nitin Pai

A number of analysts attribute the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) underperformance in the general election to voter unhappiness with the Narendra Modi government over unemployment, job reservations and farmer livelihoods. 

The Agnipath scheme of military recruitment came in for criticism during the election campaign and many political commentators expect that the new government will be compelled to make changes to it. We should view interpretations of election results with some scepticism, but it does appear that the issue of inadequate employment opportunities has bubbled up to the surface of our political ocean.

Read the full article here.

Read More
Indo-Pacific Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Indo-Pacific Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | The world should take up China's nuclear no-first-use treaty proposal

By Nitin Pai

The world is too distracted with ongoing wars and high-stakes election campaigns to pay attention to a remarkable proposal from China. At the United Nations Conference on Disarmament held in Geneva this February, one of Beijing’s senior officials dealing with nuclear weapons policy declared that “nuclear-weapon states should negotiate and conclude a treaty on no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other or make a political statement in this regard." Read the full article here.

Read More
Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | The carbon emissions of war put humanity’s right to exist at risk

By Nitin Pai

The regional head of a well-regarded global philanthropic foundation recently told me that his board had decided to exclusively focus on funding causes concerned with combating climate change. Knowing that it had previously supported work on nuclear disarmament and international security, I asked why those problems were no longer of interest to the foundation. His reply left me bemused. Climate change, he told me, is a long-term existential threat to humanity. Read the full article here.

Read More
Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | America is not yet declining but appears willing to let itself down

By Nitin Pai

I spent the mid-2000s arguing why Indian foreign policy must make a decisive shift towards the United States. The shadow of the Cold War had not yet dissolved and memories of US support for Pakistan’s proxy war were still alive in the minds of the country’s strategic establishment. The Vajpayee government had initiated a shift in thinking after the 1998 nuclear tests and prime minister Manmohan Singh was pushing for a major breakthrough in the form of a nuclear deal. Read the full article here.

Read More
Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | Iran-Israel lesson: Effective missile defence is costly and could be risky too

By Nitin Pai

The conflicts between Ukraine and Russia and between Israel and Iran over Palestine have demonstrated that missile defence has come of age. Even before Israel, with the help of the US and its allies, successfully intercepted nearly all of the 320 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles that Iran launched last week, the Ukrainians had reported that they had shot down all 80 of the drones that the Russians had dispatched against them on one New Year’s weekend. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | India cannot solve its water crisis without proper pricing

By Nitin Pai

A few years ago, the mayor of a Karnataka town asked me how she could prevent people from wastefully washing their yards, walls and vehicles with water from the municipal water supply. She told me she had organized awareness campaigns, promoted conservation efforts and even personally remonstrated with citizens, but to little avail. When I asked her how much they paid for the water, she replied that the monthly charge was a few tens of rupees per connection, but this was not strictly enforced. She was taken aback when I told her that was why her conservation efforts had been unsuccessful. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Times of India | Piketty’s wrong again. We should be happy India is creating billionaires

By Nitin Pai

To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Thomas Piketty, economist and writer of big fat books, believes that economic inequality is a problem and higher taxes on the rich are the solution. To this end, he has enlisted social scientists from around the world to cast inequality as a global problem. It’s a little like European communists who, a century ago, zeroed in on class struggle as the big problem and went around the world looking for it. Read the full article here.

Read More
Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | The West’s disregard for global norms is endangering the world

By Nitin Pai

In the summer of the year 416 BCE, an Athenian naval fleet turned up on the island of Melos and demanded that its population submit to slavery. The Melians argued that since they had refused to side with Sparta—Athens’ main adversary in the ongoing conflict —and instead wished to remain neutral, it would only be right for the big powers to leave them alone. The Athenian response, one of the famous lines in world history, was “You understand as well as we do that in the human sphere judgements about justice are relevant only between those with an equal power to enforce it, and that the possibilities are defined by what the strong do and the weak accept." In Richard Crawley’s classic 1874 translation of Thucydides’s History of the Peloponnesian War, the words are punchier. “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." Read the full article here.

Read More
High-Tech Geopolitics Shrikrishna Upadhyaya High-Tech Geopolitics Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | Geopolitical power is now seen to flow from the pins of microchips

By Nitin Pai

The US is going after the Chinese semiconductor industry with a ferocity that has very few precedents. Driven by a national security doctrine aimed at denying China the ability to exploit American technology to threaten America’s interests, Washington has been tightening the screws on its own industry and that of its allies since the summer of 2022. In addition to export restrictions and employment controls, the US government has been pushing Taiwan, the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and Germany to squeeze the sale of manufacturing equipment, critical parts, raw materials and ongoing service contracts with mainland Chinese companies. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister recently called the sanctions “reaching bewildering levels of unfathomable absurdity." Read the full article here.

Read More
Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | Lessons on hyper-diversity from the people of Papua New Guinea

By Nitin Pai

There are so many crises raging around the world that you can ask why I have chosen to bring the one in Papua New Guinea (PNG) to your attention this fortnight. So let me tell you the reason upfront: It is an example of why hyper-diverse societies can end up in deep trouble unless they develop the necessary social capital needed to govern themselves. The post-colonial state was carved out of an arbitrary chunk of the Melanesian archipelago (the region comprising the easternmost stretches of Indonesia and islands northeast of Australia). Its claim to fame is that it has the most diverse population on the planet, with over 850 languages and thousands of bands and tribes, in a population of over 10 million living in a country the size of Maharashtra and Gujarat combined. Read the full article here.

Read More
Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | Science fiction must escape its dystopic trap and foster hope

By Nitin Pai

There was a big controversy in the science-fiction community last month when it emerged that the 2023 Hugo Awards, decided in October at the world convention in Chengdu, China, had inexplicably disqualified a few prominent entries from the list of nominations. Those quietly dropped included R.F. Kuang’s bestselling Babel and Xiran Jay Zhao’s Iron Widow, prompting suspicion that they might have triggered Beijing’s censorship filters. Even an entry by the legendary Neil Gaiman was disqualified. A couple of heads have rolled since then, but the mystery remains. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | We need to build social capital for a better quality of urban life

By Nitin Pai

Five years after Bengaluru’s Church Street received a facelift, it is struggling with dumped garbage, broken pavements, damaged street lights, brazen illegal parking and inadequate maintenance in general. It has been painful to observe this deterioration right outside my office. At this point, you are perhaps rolling your eyes and saying “what’s new?", since we all know about the corruption in local government, incompetence of city authorities and the ‘lack of civic sense’ among our people. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | Eating together could strengthen our national consciousness

By Nitin Pai

You might not have noticed it, but it is extremely difficult to find a restaurant in India that can seat a dozen people around a single round table. If you have more than six diners, you have to ask the restaurant to join two or more tables to create a long rectangle. While this allows several colleagues or family members to technically sit at the same table, conversation and sharing of food is limited to groups of four or five people sitting next to each other. Compared to many East Asian countries where big round tables are commonplace in restaurants, communal dining in India mostly caters to rather small groups. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | Social capital can help close a wide MSME gap

By Nitin Pai

In his inaugural address to the first Industrial Conference in Pune in 1890, Mahadev Govind Ranade noted that “the industry of the country is parched up for want of Capital" because after land revenue, a considerable portion of gross savings was used to hoard bullion. The lack of institutional arrangements for industrial finance meant that capital was locked up in unproductive assets and not available to India’s entrepreneurs. A century later, the German economic historian Dietmar Rothermund came to a similar conclusion. Lacking financial institutions, Indian surpluses in the second half of the 19th century went into gold and land. Meiji Japan, in contrast, was able to “gather small savings and to channel them into the mainstream of the national economy," enabling the country’s industrialization. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | A strong social capital is a prerequisite for cohesive climate action

By Nitin Pai

I am likely to get into trouble with many of my friends for saying this, but I think the world is making extraordinary progress towards addressing climate change. It might not be fast enough to achieve emissions and temperature targets that follow from the IPCC’s studies, but in the past 15 years, we have seen first a scientific consensus and then a global political consensus on the problem definition, followed by convergence on approaches and firm international agreements on targets and timelines. Climate activists remain unsatisfied, but for students of international relations, this kind of progress is unprecedented, not least at a time when the world lacks a stable order, technological change is causing social upheavals everywhere and hundreds of millions of people around the world have entered the middle class. Regardless of how its outcomes are judged, the mere fact that CoP-28 is happening at all is remarkable. Read the full article here.

Read More
Indo-Pacific Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Indo-Pacific Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | Containing China's technology ecosystem will remain a US policy priority

By Nitin Pai

The most significant achievement of last week’s meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping was that it took place. Xi agreed to crack down on fentanyl exports and resume military communication channels. There was some agreement on working together on managing risks from artificial intelligence. It took six months of ground work by cabinet-level officials and four hours of direct talks between the two leaders to agree on these limited points. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Times of India | Let’s not go crackers over bans every Diwali. Leave fireworks policy to states

By Nitin Pai

The Supreme Court has done well to refuse a blanket ban on all firecrackers in India. Its recent order reminding states to prohibit the manufacture and sale of joined firecrackers and those containing barium is a prudent one. Yet in the absence of a sensible firecracker policy, it is likely that approaching the Supreme Court for a ban will become an annual pre-Diwali ritual. How should India govern firecrackers? Read the full article here.

Read More
Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | The world cannot escape repercussions of the ongoing war in West Asia

By Nitin Pai

The externalities of Hamas’s perverse terrorism and Israel’s massive military retaliation will haunt the whole world for at least another generation. The conflict is still in progress, but its course over the past month has already given us three terrible assessments. First, Hamas demonstrated that terrorism can succeed in advancing political objectives. In this, it has reversed the post-9/11 strategic consensus that terrorism is not only ineffective as a political strategy but can delegitimize the political cause it seeks to advance. The world had forgotten the Palestinian cause. A month ago, Israel was close to a rapprochement with Arab powers, while Western powers were focused on Russia, China and Iran, and Palestine was off the global agenda. Even before Hamas invaders were beaten back, the ‘two-state solution’—meaning the creation of a viable Palestinian state—was back in circulation. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | The techno-optimist’s agenda must heed the consequences too

By Nitin Pai

I believe technology is a unique human capacity that can continue to improve our well-being. Individual freedom, free markets and liberal democracy are remarkable conceptual innovations that have allowed our species to achieve extraordinary levels of well-being. And human ingenuity—often underrated in the face of the kind of daunting social and environmental challenges that confront us—can help us find ways out of the messy problems that it sometimes creates. That is why I am concerned about the “techno-optimist manifesto" that Marc Andreessen published last week, for it undermines the very cause it seeks to promote. Read the full article here.

Read More