Money Control | India-China equation reset is at a new normal, not the old one

Power asymmetry between the two countries and the likelihood of just a limited easing in the trade relationship make going back to pre-2020 phase impossible. Moreover, there’s no evidence of a dialogue yet on next step towards de-escalation. Keep your fingers crossed and expectations contained

By Manoj Kewalramani

Read the full article here.

The Indian Express | India-China border agreement: Five reasons to be cautiously optimistic

The announcement is just the first step in a long process of normalisation of the situation along the boundary areas. For starters, the agreement needs to be implemented on the ground, with patrolling becoming normalised

By Manoj Kewalramani

Read the full article here.

Money Control | Quad, through Chinese lens

Chinese opinions on the Quad converge on one point, that it’s a US-led tool of containment. However, there are mixed opinions on the effectiveness of the wider Quad agenda. On India, Chinese portrayal depicts the country as an opportunistic and wavering partner of the US 

By Manoj Kewalramani

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The Hindu | Perils of decentralisation with Chinese characteristics

Decentralisation, once celebrated as a reason for China’s economic miracle, seems to have now turned counter-productive

By Pranay Kotasthane & Manoj Kewalramani

Read the full article here.

NDTV | India And China May Finally Be Warming Up To Each Other

It's not a thaw yet, but there are certainly signs of some warming in the India-China relationship. Of late, there has been an uptick in dialogue to resolve outstanding issues along two friction points in Eastern Ladakh. At the same time, there is a fresh debate underway within India on economic engagement with China

By Manoj Kewalramani

Read the full article here.

NDTV World | Greater Expectations: Why China Is Going Nuclear 'Faster Than Ever'

Recent data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that the world's nuclear powers are continuing to expand investment in strengthening their arsenals. While the total number of warheads around the world is declining, the number of operational nuclear warheads is increasing. The US and Russia, of course, account for an overwhelming majority of nuclear warheads. Read the full article here.

CSIS Interpret | The Belt and Road Initiative at 10: Regional Perspectives on China’s Evolving Approach

No official Indian delegation attended the 2023 Belt and Road Forum, which was held in Beijing in October. This has been the pattern since the first forum was held in 2017 to expand cooperation around China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, unlike the past two events, Beijing did not extend an invitation to New Delhi this time around. This offers a glimpse into the state of the bilateral relationship, which has been on a downward spiral since 2017. Read the full article here.

Firstpost | What SSF’s disbandment tells us about Chinese policymaking under Xi Jinping

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s concentration of power over the past decade has heightened concerns about the efficiency and flexibility of policymaking in China. Three questions have been key to this discourse. First, has concentration of power and centralisation of decision-making enabled breaking through bureaucratic and vested interests to enact changes? Second, what has been the impact of centralisation on the flow of information within the system, particularly to the top leader? Third, has centralisation of power led to greater rigidity in policy thinking and implementation, resulting in the persistence of evidently adverse choices? The recent decision to disband the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Strategic Support Force (SSF) and create three specialised arms offers an interesting case study in this context. Read the full article here.

NDTV | A Shaky World Order: Can India Navigate A Russia-China-Iran Axis?

The world today appears to be on the verge of a cascade of conflicts. Over two years since it started, the Russia-Ukraine war does not seem to be heading towards an imminent settlement. Likewise, despite calls for a ceasefire, the Israel-Hamas conflict appears unlikely to abate anytime soon. And now, events over the past month involving Israel and Iran have demonstrated the potential for a wider regional conflict. Read the full article here.

The Indian Express | Warmer Moscow-Beijing ties are a chilling signal for New Delhi

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to China was brief but significant. On the face of it, Lavrov was in Beijing to set the stage for an anticipated trip by President Vladimir Putin in May. To that end, he met China’s President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Amidst the usual diplomatic pleasantries, three outcomes that emerged are particularly important from India’s perspective. Read the full article here.

9DashLine | China’s ‘history learning’ regulations

In February, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) released regulations governing the study of the Party's history. According to Chinese media, the document serves as the CPC’s “core internal guideline” for organising and implementing study programmes about the Party’s history, with the goal of “strengthening understanding, conviction, integrity, and diligence”. Read the full article here.

Fulcrum | India and China’s Volatile New Status Quo

In early January, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke at a symposium on the country’s foreign relations. The speech touched upon the churn in China’s ties with several countries. While India was not included in that list, the Sino-Indian relationship remained abnormal since their standoff in Eastern Ladakh in April-May 2020. It bears repeating that this would have repercussions for Southeast Asia and the wider region. Read the full article here.

Moneycontrol - Biden-Xi Summit: Challenge is to continue US-China engagements despite tensions

Leaders of the United States and China are expected to hold their first bilateral meeting in a year at the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco today. The fact that this meeting is taking place is in itself a significant achievement for diplomats on both sides. It also underscores that despite the intense nature of Sino-US strategic competition and heated rhetoric, achieving some sort of stability is a shared interest. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi captured this in outlining the “Five Musts” for the two countries during his recent visit to the US. Read the full article here.

The Wire China | How China’s Global Initiatives Aim to Change the Way the World is Run

In 2013, in a speech in Moscow, Xi Jinping floated the idea of mankind being a community of shared future or common destiny. In the decade that has followed, this phrase began to shift from being a description of the world’s interconnected nature to underpinning the idea of a more proactive foreign policy that aims to shape a favourable external environment for China.  Since 2021, however, with the launch of the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and the Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI), the concept of mankind being a community of common destiny has been fleshed out as Beijing’s key proposition to reform global governance. Read the full article here.

Moneycontrol | What China’s missing officials tell us about its politics

The sudden vanishing of China’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu has sparked speculations about factional infighting and political instability. For many, this, along with the broader crackdown in the military and the abrupt removal of Foreign Minister Qin Gang, are indicative of warring factions undermining Xi’s authority. However, given the developments over the past decade and the exalted position that Xi enjoys, this is likely a misreading of the situation. Read the full article here.

Hindustan Times | When India and China speak for Global South

The Global South is a vague term – it is supposed to capture a diverse group of 130-odd countries, encapsulating two-thirds of the world’s population, and covers Africa, the Middle East, Asia, the Pacific Islands, Latin America, and the Caribbean. But it seems to possess extraordinary political and diplomatic purchases for both India and China. Both are increasingly positioning themselves as leaders of the Global South. What utility such leadership implies for each, however, reveals differences. Delhi appears to view the Global South through the lens of shared interests and hopes to function as a bridge between the Global North and Global South. Meanwhile, Beijing’s outreach to the Global South is driven by an agenda to tilt the scales in its favour in terms of its strategic competition with the United States (US).

Moneycontrol | China Economy: Has the export-investment-state-driven growth model reached its limits?

The Chinese economy appears to be undergoing a historic churn. This is a product of several factors, such as the structural challenges of the investment and exports-driven growth model, government intervention in order to reshape economic structure and incentives and a turbulent external environment. The scrapping of the zero-COVID policy in late 2022 had created expectations for a rapid economic recovery in China. This was reflected in the rise in growth expectations in the first quarter of 2023. There was anticipation that pent-up consumer demand, increased fiscal spending, and efforts to boost market confidence and signal openness and policy predictability would result in growth rebounding. This, however, has not come to pass. Read the full article here.

Takshashila Blog | Is Europe Unanimous on China?

Germany recently released its strategy on China, outlining the challenges China poses and setting forth an agenda regarding how it intends to cooperate with it. The document notes the assertive character of Chinese foreign policy, China’s efforts to reshape the existing rules-based international order “according to its own preferences”, and how China impacts European and global security as a result. Germany calls China a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival”. It points out human rights violations in Xinjiang and Tibet, and the erosion of civil liberties in Hong Kong. Read the full blog here.

Moneycontrol | Three factors that prevent India and China from getting close

Both India and China lie at the heart of the geopolitical churn in the Indo-Pacific, with their bilateral relationship holding significant implications for the future of the world order. While India is pursuing a policy of multi-alignment, it increasingly seems to be caught between two emerging power centres. On one side is a rising China, which is seeking to actively reshape the international order to facilitate its rise to the centre-stage of world affairs; on the other is the US, which is working to boost domestic strength, revitalise old alliances and fashion new partnerships in order to sustain its preeminence. Read the full article here.

Hindustan Times | Qin’s removal reveals a messy portrait of China

The standing committee of the National People’s Congress (NPCSC), China’s top legislature, on Tuesday, announced the removal of Qin Gang as the country’s foreign minister. The decision came during a previously unplanned and abruptly announced daylong meeting of the body. Conventionally, NPCSC meets on a bimonthly basis. Meeting dates and agenda are usually announced far in advance. This departure from set norms in a country where tradition and discipline are valued above all, and where small deviations and changes are all the signs one gets of upheavals within, has set off speculation. Read the full article here.