Moneycontrol | Global Economy 2024: Positives in macro outlook outweighing uncertainties, India in a position to dream big

Macroeconomists were created to make weather forecasters gain credibility” goes one joke. “Economists have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions” is another dig at the predictive ability of the macroeconomics discipline. Beyond the humour, it points to the obvious complexity of interaction between hundreds of related variables in a complicated geopolitical scenario. Despite the obvious risks involved in speculating about the future in the economic domain, many brave economists undertake foolhardy tasks of making year-end projections and this is one such attempt. Read the full article here.

Why crisis-hit Pakistan won’t go the Lanka way

There are a few factors that might prevent an all-out collapse like we saw in Sri Lanka. First, Pakistan has been here before. Many times, in fact.  Pakistan has sought financial aid from the UAE, China, and the IMF in 2013, 2016 and 2018.  Second, the international community is wary about a Sri Lanka styled economic and political collapse in a nuclear armed country. The threat of rogue players gaining access to nukes often makes lenders a lot more lenient in issuance of fresh loans and repayment terms. Third, Pakistan has more generous friends. Pakistan received a loan from Saudi Arabia and recently, the UAE government has offered to acquire 10 to 12 per cent equity shares in Pakistan government-owned companies through its sovereign wealth funds.

Indian economy needs structural reforms & behavioural change, not macroeconomic jargon

Okay, the Indian economy is in a slowdown and it is absolutely important for us to quickly get back onto the path of high growth. Economic output is the sum of consumer expenditure, investment, government expenditure and net exports. The best way to increase growth is to increase all four of the above. There is a need for technical discussion among macroeconomists, financial analysts, business journalists and policymakers, but it cannot be the only show in town.Read more