Lockdown Is Choking The Economy

When the national lockdown was imposed, with four hours notice, the country had less than 200 positive cases and a two percent fatality rate. The world marvelled at India’s determination in imposing such a strict control on a billion people.  Two months later, the number of virus positive cases is nearing 1.5 lakh and the fatality rate has inched up to 3 percent. Now the world is not so sure whether the strict lockdown has achieved what it set out to do.The stated goal was to “flatten the curve”, that is decrease the upward slope of the spread of the virus. Since the virus mainly spreads from people to people contact, the method was to isolate people in their own homes, observe social distancing, restrict movement.Three fourth of the economy was shut down. It was as if collectively the nation was holding its breath. But after holding our breath for two months, we are feeling breathless, the economy is choking, having run out of its oxygen. The four-hour notice given on March 24, also meant that people did not have any time to plan their own lockdown. Many families suddenly found themselves separated, since one or two members were stuck in a different city due to office duty.Read more

Crowds at booze stores reveal an addled approach to policy

The long queues outside liquor stores last week attracted a lot of attention, commentary and government reaction. Many people were dismayed that among the first things their compatriots did after the relaxation of the lockdown was to make a beeline for the liquor store. In an unusual demonstration of alacrity, the Delhi government immediately imposed an additional 70% tax on retail liquor sales, ostensibly to put some brakes on demand and reduce coronavirus outbreak risks. The sense of moral outrage was compounded after a Bangalorean customer triumphantly shared a ₹52,000 liquor store receipt on social media. This too caused the Karnataka excise department to rapidly rise to the occasion and come down hard on the retailer concerned for exceeding the maximum quantity that can be sold to a person at a time.

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To open or not to open India up: a dilemma that need not be one

As India decides what next after the 21-day national lockdown ends on 14 April, opinions are divided among those who want a phased lifting and those who want to extend it. This reflects underlying differences between those who believe it is worth taking calculated risks to forestall widespread suffering on account of lost livelihoods, and those who are concerned taking such risks could cause the pandemic to spiral out of control.

Bold as it was, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to impose a lockdown on 24 March was easier compared to what he has on his plate now. At that time, the consequences of the pandemic were clear, whereas those of the lockdown both unknown and in the future. It is almost the opposite now, and the moral dilemma appears far more acute. The prime minister has to weigh the real suffering of hundreds of millions of people caught in the lockdown against the millions who might catch the disease if the lockdown is lifted and the pandemic spreads. It’s not an easy decision, but there are ways to make it less difficult.Read more