Mint | The West’s disregard for global norms is endangering the world

In the summer of the year 416 BCE, an Athenian naval fleet turned up on the island of Melos and demanded that its population submit to slavery. The Melians argued that since they had refused to side with Sparta—Athens’ main adversary in the ongoing conflict —and instead wished to remain neutral, it would only be right for the big powers to leave them alone. The Athenian response, one of the famous lines in world history, was “You understand as well as we do that in the human sphere judgements about justice are relevant only between those with an equal power to enforce it, and that the possibilities are defined by what the strong do and the weak accept." In Richard Crawley’s classic 1874 translation of Thucydides’s History of the Peloponnesian War, the words are punchier. “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." Read the full article here.

Moneycontrol | Global Economy 2024: Positives in macro outlook outweighing uncertainties, India in a position to dream big

Macroeconomists were created to make weather forecasters gain credibility” goes one joke. “Economists have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions” is another dig at the predictive ability of the macroeconomics discipline. Beyond the humour, it points to the obvious complexity of interaction between hundreds of related variables in a complicated geopolitical scenario. Despite the obvious risks involved in speculating about the future in the economic domain, many brave economists undertake foolhardy tasks of making year-end projections and this is one such attempt. Read the full article here.

A retreat from global trade will hurt India’s geopolitical stature

Almost a year ago, this column had warned that the economic slowdown that India was experiencing would have a negative impact on India’s geopolitical standing, because it is “presumptuous to expect countries and companies to be sympathetic to India’s political interests if they do not see an economic upside". “Sheer momentum will allow Indian foreign policy to tide over a mild, short slowdown. If, however, we go into a deep, prolonged slump, we should expect a tough time in international relations." This was before the COVID pandemic began. Events and India’s own policy choices since then have worsened the prognosis.

With an economic recovery distant, rising trade restrictions, and a reluctance to participate in a wider geopolitical contest against China, India risks undermining its relevance as a world power. For its part, Beijing is unlikely to miss any opportunity to push its hegemonic agenda further and box New Delhi into a sub-subcontinental role. The international environment that was so conducive to India’s developmental and political interests over the past three decades might turn against us within the next couple of years. One has only to recollect the experience of the 1970s and 80s—when import and foreign exchange restrictions, international sanctions and foreign sympathy for domestic insurgencies kept us on the back foot and dissipated our strategic establishment’s energies—to conclude that the government should do everything possible to avoid a similar plight.Read More