The Hindu | India-China consumption comparison

In 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country. The development came against the backdrop of a declining birth rate (6.4 births per 1,000 people) and total fertility rate (~1%) in China. China also recorded a negative population growth rate for the first time in six decades. This means a rising dependency ratio, which is projected to increase over time. In contrast, India’s population, despite reaching replacement levels (total fertility rate of 2.1), is expected to grow and peak around 2060. Read the article here.

Foreign Policy | The Hidden Dangers in China’s GDP Numbers

China’s recently announced GDP target for 2024  remains unchanged from last year, at 5 percent. But even if the country hits that number, its economic problems run deep. In January, China published economic data for the last quarter of 2023 which put its annual GDP growth rate at 5.2 percent, beating the government target. Yet, to put things in perspective, China’s real GDP growth rate from 2011 to 2019 averaged 7.3 percent while 2001-10 saw average growth of 10.5 percent. Read the full article here.

The Hindu | What does China’s 2024 economic policy look like?

The 2023 Chinese Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), an annual meeting mechanism of the Communist Party where the economic direction of the nation for the upcoming year is deliberated and agreed upon by key stakeholders, recently concluded on December 12, and the readout from the meeting stresses a stability-oriented pathway for the Chinese economy in 2024. Overall, the line of action seems pretty clear, at least from the CEWC deliberations - moving away from export-led to domestic demand-led growth, expanding high-quality production process, achieving self-reliance in critical tech but collaborating with trade partners as necessary, and ensuring financial discipline alongside stability of funds and liquidity. Needless to say, many of these goals have been repeated in the past few years, but some of them require intense structural reform, including by means of abandoning long-held beliefs and practices of the Chinese party-state. Read the full article here.

Moneycontrol | China Economy: Has the export-investment-state-driven growth model reached its limits?

The Chinese economy appears to be undergoing a historic churn. This is a product of several factors, such as the structural challenges of the investment and exports-driven growth model, government intervention in order to reshape economic structure and incentives and a turbulent external environment. The scrapping of the zero-COVID policy in late 2022 had created expectations for a rapid economic recovery in China. This was reflected in the rise in growth expectations in the first quarter of 2023. There was anticipation that pent-up consumer demand, increased fiscal spending, and efforts to boost market confidence and signal openness and policy predictability would result in growth rebounding. This, however, has not come to pass. Read the full article here.

China’s Economy May Be ‘Slowing Down’, But Don’t Write Off BRI Yet

Ever since it was launched, there’s been a raging debate about the sustainability of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Conventionally, these conversations take shape depending on where you stand. In other words, depending on one’s ideological and geopolitical prism, BRI is either a grand strategic plan that is reshaping the global political and economic order or an example of Xi Jinping’s hubris, which is leading to overreach, and will eventually collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. A new Financial Times report this week, highlighting a sharp decline in Chinese overseas lending, sparked another such debate.Read the full article in The Quint.