The Cascading Effects of Chip Starvation to Russia

The US and its allies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Netherlands enjoy an elevated status in the global high-tech sphere. Much of the world’s production capacity and intellectual property (IP) related to micro-electronic and semiconductors chips are concentrated in the territory of the US and its allies. This strategic high-tech dominance ensures that the US can inflict major costs on adversarial countries like Russia and China and their economies. It is clear that the recently imposed sanctions and export controls on Russia and the resultant chip starvation will have increasingly detrimental effects on the Russian economy. With no hope to import chips legally, Moscow may turn to gray imports and smuggling.

Charting a Course for India’s Arctic Engagement

India published its finalised Arctic Policy document on March 17. The document casts a wide net and explains India’s priorities, objectives and course of action for the Arctic in impressive clarity. A thorough examination reveals that the policy has benefited from the Government of India publishing a draft and inviting comments in January 2021. A clear imprint of similar publications from around the globe, most recently by the European Union (EU) is also visible.

In objective terms, the policy has almost all the elements of a good strategic publication, with largely no unaddressed areas of relevance to India’s national interest in the Arctic region except when it comes to encouraging private space sector companies. As the policy lays out, India’s interest in the Arctic is primarily scientific and meteorological, pursuits, which have direct implications for India’s development goals, economy, agriculture and food security.

India’s Aloof Response to the Ukraine Crisis

Read the Full Text on East Asia Forum

By: Artyom Lukin, Far Eastern Federal University and Aditya Pareek, Takshashila Institution

Moscow’s decision to recognise the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and then launch a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has created a tricky balancing act for India. Delhi’s immediate reaction to the crisis has been restrained, neutral and focused on ensuring the safety of its nationals inside Ukraine.
Several hours after Russian military action was underway, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Modi urged that all violence should be ceased immediately and reiterated India’s emphasis on diplomacy and ‘honest and sincere dialogue’ between Russia and NATO.

On 26 February 2022, the United Nations Security Council held a vote on a resolution demanding that Moscow immediately stop its attack on Ukraine and withdraw all troops. India was among the three countries to abstain, along with China and the United Arab Emirates. India’s UN envoy expressed his ‘regret that the path of diplomacy was given up’. India also abstained on a procedural resolution to call for an emergency session of the UN General Assembly.

Modi also held a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in which he expressed ‘his deep anguish about the loss of lives and properties’ but refrained from directly criticising Russia.

The India–Russia relationship is officially characterised as a ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’. The entente between Moscow and Delhi dates back decades. Though the bond is no longer the de facto alliance it once was in the 1970s and 1980s, Moscow remains Delhi’s an important strategic partner, on par with the United States. The two nations don’t have any significant areas of disagreement and both share a fundamental interest in a multipolar balance of power in Eurasia.

India relies on Russia for the majority of its imported military equipment, nuclear submarine technology and some vital space faring technology. A highlight of India–Russian defence cooperation has been the US$5.43 billion deal for the S-400 air defence system, which Russia began delivering in December 2021. Russian-made weapons are critical to India’s ability to counter its main external threat — China.

There are also perhaps ideational factors behind India’s reluctance to censure Russian actions toward Ukraine. The conflict over Ukraine may have some parallels with India’s historic traumas. The fragmentation of the Soviet Union that led to the birth of an independent Ukraine was not dissimilar to the partition of the British Raj, which produced India and Pakistan, two culturally close but still antagonistic entities. Putin characterises the modern state of Ukraine in antagonistic terms as an ‘anti-Russia’ project.

Western powers portray the conflict as a struggle between an imperialistic autocracy and a young democracy, but Delhi may not buy this narrative. India has always been somewhat sceptical about the US-led discourse on liberal democracy. This remains the case despite the Westernisation of Indian elites. Under Modi, India has been evolving in an illiberal and ethno-nationalistic direction. It is an open secret that India wants to maintain its sphere of influence in parts of South Asia.

India does not have many significant security interests in Europe, which helps explain its relative aloofness to the Ukraine crisis. But Delhi does have some stakes in Ukraine. For instance, the Indian Space Research Organisation’s semi cryogenic engine is being developed based on Ukrainian supplied RD-810 designs and many Indian navy warships depend on Ukrainian gas turbines, including those under construction at Russian shipyards. So India has a national security stake in not alienating Ukraine.

Another reason for India’s repeated calls for the cessation of violence, de-escalation and resolving the situation through diplomacy is high energy prices, which may negatively affect India’s stressed economy.

The Role of Space in the Russia-Ukraine War

An escalation in space could cost more Ukrainian lives and leave Russian forces blind

The Russian special military operation launched against Ukraine is raging. Much of the action by forces on both sides is observable on land, in the air, amritime and cyber domains. curiously few – if any- details are emerging about the role of outer space in the conflict.

Ukraine War Won’t Affect Global Semiconductor Supply, But Will Hit Russia Hard

With the world still reeling from a global chip shortage, the recent crisis in Ukraine sends a bleak message to the already floundering industry. The semiconductor chip supply is yet to recover from the shock dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic. This, coupled with an impending war between two states that are contributors to the global supply chain, is detrimental to the industry’s recovery. The consumer electronics and automotive markets have been massively hit by this chip shortage. Apple, a major manufacturer of mobile phones and laptops, has pushed the release of their new line of MacBook and announced that the number of iPhone models being manufactured would be reduced due to the chip shortage. The automotive sector is still underperforming and major players have yet to resume operations at pre-pandemic levels. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia might have some implications on the global chip supply along with consequences for the Russian semiconductor industry itself.

US Indo-Pacific Strategy geared for Great Power Competition

The US recently came out with the latest iteration of its Indo-Pacific Strategy. The document has a clear imprint of the ongoing great-power competition across political, ideological and military-technical domains between US and its allies on one side and China and Russia on the other. The document has a realist tone, admitting that the US seeks “a balance of influence in the world that is maximally favorable” to it. It is no coincidence that Russia and China take issue with the US rhetoric on a “rules-based order” that would only be advantageous to US and countries closely aligned to it. 

India Needs A Comprehensive Space Strategy

It will not only bolster inter-organisation coordination in India’s space sector, but also help in building investor confidence and projecting the country as a responsible space power

India’s growth and prosperity in the present era is due to its ability to secure its use of outer space. With the advent of the second space age, private NewSpace companies such as SpaceX are leading the charge, and not governmental civilian space agencies or militaries. However, as outlined in the Outer Space Treaty (OST), the existing international laws hold nation-states responsible for the actions and consequences of their private space companies, citizens, and functionaries.

Has Russia Wrecked American ‘G-2’ Plans?

On January 10, the U.S. and Russia held an “extraordinary” session of the bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue in Geneva. Unlike the previous two meetings, held in July and September last year, the recent meeting occurred against the backdrop of increasing tensions between the West and Russia. With the growing threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the table, the recent talks included both the issue of strategic stability and a Russian demand for security guarantees from the United States. While much focus has been given to NATO’s eastward expansion as a prime driver of Russian insecurity, it may instead be the Kremlin’s fear of an emergent China-U.S. “G-2” being manifested in Russian strategic behavior.

Russia, The West, And The Info War

Fears of war breaking out between Russia and Ukraine have dominated headlines in the international press. Information warfare is an undeniable reality of modern conflicts, and its impact is often strategic in demoralizing the adversary’s forces and populace.

In many of its doctrinal and strategic publications, Russia acknowledges that the information domain is an active battleground, regardless of the contending sides being in a state of war or peace. Despite spirited official denials, it is fair to say that Russia gives as good as it gets in the information domain.

In the latest round of public jousting around hybrid and information warfare, both sides have led with accusations and official public statements.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has alleged that American mercenaries are present and looking to orchestrate a chemical attack in the Donbas region of Ukraine. Meanwhile the US State Department has released a fact sheet detailing the alleged Russian “destabilization campaign in Ukraine.” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has made a statement accusing Russia of planning “to install pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine.”

Russia’s approach to building up forces on Ukraine’s border is best characterized as Clausewitzian, meaning it’s aimed toward achieving political goals through other means.

Russian energy industry makes new social media connection

Russia’s energy industry currently brings in a major chunk of state revenue and is tied to common prosperity and employment in the Russian economy. Although a willingness eventually to phase out hydrocarbons now exists, the idea is to switch to exporting greener sources of energy such as hydrogen instead of just watching business decline.

Read the full article on Asia Times