What’s Driving Japan’s Policy Pivot on Taiwan

Introduction

The future of Taiwan is increasingly occupying greater salience in Japanese political discourse. Historically, the Japanese view on a potential PRC invasion was fairly guarded. This was in the context of the narrow foreign policy approach, particularly with regards to military conflicts abroad, constitutional constraints as outlined in Article 9, and public opinion. Article 9 of the Japanese constitution actively renounces war and prohibits the country from maintaining any kind of armed forces that have war potential. However, in light of China's increased assertiveness, there has been a recognition of the urgent necessity to adjust its foreign policy and defence posture.

Policy Shift 

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s declaration that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency” underlines Japan's shifting perspective. It reveals a deep-seated appreciation that stability and security in the Taiwan Strait are intricately linked to Japan’s own security, particularly given the geographical proximity of some of Japan's offshore islands to Taiwan which are crucial for its maritime trade and economy. The joint statement issued by Japan and the US during the 2021 Summit reiterated “the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element in security and prosperity in the international community.” Notably, this marked the first explicit mention of Taiwan in such a statement since 1969. The Nixon-Sato communique in 1969 included a ‘Taiwan Clause’, which emphasised the imperative of supporting Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. 

Given the changing views on Taiwan, Japan has agreed to clear the deployment of US military forces stationed in Japan to defend Taiwan if so required. Under the US-Japan security treaty, the United States has vowed to defend Japan in case of an attack on its territory. This commitment is reciprocal, with the US being allowed to utilise Japanese territory, particularly military bases, for “the purpose of contributing to the security of Japan and the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East.” Notably, the US has around 50,000 troops stationed in Okinawa, Japan, along with approximately 77,000 acres of other military facilities. In the event of a conflict involving Taiwan, the US may potentially leverage these military assets with the authorization of the Japanese government. 

In fact Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in his current tenure, has steadfastly emphasised the necessity of bolstering Japan's defence capabilities and reinforcing the US-Japan alliance. Japan has been actively enhancing its military capabilities in the form of development of fighter jets, increase in defence allocation and relaxations of arms export restrictions. In response to shifts in the international landscape, Japan has also released three pivotal national-level strategic documents: the National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Strategy (NDS), and the Defence Buildup Program. Through these developments, it is evident that Japan is steadily shedding its pacifist legacy and becoming more aware of the significant linkages between Taiwan and Japan. 

Another aspect worth noting is that the Government of Japan’s (GOJ) Taiwan policy is anchored in the Japan-China Joint Communique of 1972. Amid various interpretations of this communique, Tomohisha Takei, a visiting fellow of Perry World House, notes that while the document says that Japan “fully understands and respects” Beijing’s assertion that Taiwan is a part of China, there is one catch: this reunification of two nations must be achieved peacefully. If China at any point decides to alter the status quo through the use of force,  Japan can claim that it is a deviation from the spirit of the communique. This line of reasoning can then be utilised by Japan to intervene in the conflict. 

Public Opinion 

Public opinion regarding potential Japanese involvement in a Taiwan contingency varies based on the level of threat that Japan faces. The Japanese people generally have had a negative view of China for the past decade. A 2023 survey saw a massive 92% of respondents holding an unfavourable opinion of China. According to a Stanford survey, support for Japanese involvement in a potential war decreased if China promised to not attack Japan. However, the number goes up if China threatens Japan or any of its outlying islands. In a carefully constructed speech last year, Taro Aso, Vice President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan, used the phrase “tatakau kakugo” which stands for ‘willingness to fight’, in defence of Taiwan. The choice of words subsequently caused a stir within the media. One interpretation emphasised that the main point of Aso was to communicate that showing one’s willingness to fight is a necessary condition to build an effective deterrent. Meanwhile, other interpretations suggested that he was warning Taiwan to prepare for war.

Will Japan Fight?

In light of these conversations and Japan’s efforts to break out of its shell, the main question that looms is, “Whether Japan will fight?”. This question can be answered in a couple of ways. 

Firstly, The US President Joe Biden has made several comments regarding Japan’s role in a potential invasion that makes Japan look like the linchpin to the US-Japan-Taiwan narrative. The circumstances for Japan to actively engage in this conflict is also dependent on the US' actions. If at all the US decides to intervene, it might want to utilise the 50,000 forces deployed in Okinawa and it might need Japan’s permission, as per the Japan-US Security Treaty. It would also want to make use of its Self Defence Forces (SDFs) bases and other infrastructural areas such as ports and airfields. Legal restrictions limit Japan's military involvement to a minimal degree, casting doubt on the extent of their participation and the locations they'll engage in. Consequently, it's improbable that Japan would launch a full-fledged attack on China. Instead, scholars have contended that Japan might act as a shield letting the US take the front stage. “Japan takes care of itself and America defends Taiwan.”, says Kawano Katsutoshi, a former chief of Japan’s joint staff. Moreover, in the event of an attack on US bases in Japan, the Government of Japan (GOJ) will unquestionably label the circumstances as an ‘armed attack situation’ or a ‘survival threatening situation’ under which pretext Japan can launch a defensive operation either on its own or with the United States collectively. 

Offshore Island Defence

Secondly, Japan's readiness to intervene is closely linked to the long term economic consequences that this conflict might cause. It is imperative to understand that the significance of Taiwan extends to Japan’s offshore islands, particularly the southwestern chain from Kyushu, Yonaguni and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Since the 2010s, increased Chinese military activities have linked Japan’s security closely to Taiwan’s stability. This interconnectedness was underscored in August 2022 when Chinese missiles landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and Chinese vessels intruded into Japanese waters.

In response, Japan has fortified these islands with garrisons, electronic-warfare units, and anti-ship and air-defence missile units. Yonaguni, just 100 km from Taiwan, now hosts a significant military presence with plans for expansion. Yasuhiro Matsuda, a security professor at the University of Tokyo, notes, "If China were to attack Taiwan, it would most likely target these nearby Japanese islands.” 

Economic Ramifications

Finally, a staggering 97% of Japan’s energy generation relied on imports mainly consisting of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Despite an overall decline in energy imports, Japan managed to outpace China by 3% in energy procurement. The crux of the matter lies in the fact that while 90% of Japan's energy imports stem from the Middle East, 80% of these vital resources navigate through the Taiwan Strait. These statistics spotlight how much Japan is reliant on the Taiwan Strait for its economic well-being and how important it is for Japan to have free and uninterrupted access to these resources. With that said, any kind of disturbance in that space, such as a conflict between China and Taiwan could severely hamper Japan’s energy supply chains. Consequently, this can then likely lead to sudden shortages and long term economic instabilities. Any form of militarization or conflict can also drive Japan to resort to longer and more pricey alternative routes of trade, only adding to the economic burden of the country.

Conclusion 

From the perspective of Japan, the day China takes control of Taiwan, it would be one of the most destabilising times in its foreign policy. However Japan’s reactions can only be based on the impetus behind Beijing’s decision to use force. For instance, if somehow Taipei declared independence, it wouldn't make sense for Japan to subject itself to the wrath of war. Alternatively, if China decided to use force to unify Taiwan, the threat to Japan becomes much more visible. Either way, Japan will only be able to truly make a decision once the situation calls for it. 

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