The Sudan Civil War: Ripples in Africa and Beyond

On September 17, 2023, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, attacked the Sudanese army headquarters in Khartoum led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The latest escalation of fighting since the start of the civil war on April 15, 2023, when a deepening power struggle between al-Burhan and Dagalo exploded into an all-out conflict.

It has not only aggravated the political turmoil in the African nation but also gave rise to a humanitarian emergency in the Sahel region and beyond.

Sudan is the third largest country in Africa continent, and it shares its borders with seven countries (Libya, Egypt, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea) in an already unstable region. Its descent into chaos will likely exacerbate poverty, and it has the potential to inflame extremism across the region, thus posing a serious global security challenge.

Descent into chaos

The current conflict traces its origin to 2021 when both al-Burhan and Dagalo orchestrated a coup that led to the ouster of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and the suspension of the constitution. After the coup, al-Burhan became the president of the Sudan Sovereign Council, while Gen Dagalo its vice-president.

The Sudan Sovereign Council was formed to govern the country. Ideological differences between al-Burhan and Dagalo and their quest for political supremacy led to a protracted battle between them.

Naunihal Singh, associate professor at the US Navy’s Naval War College and director of the Africa Regional Studies Group, observed in a report in The New York Times: “Many people were concerned about the possibility of a falling-out between Burhan and Hamdan. They had never liked each other and they had opposed institutional interests.”

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), since April 15, when the civil war broke out between al-Burhan’s and Dagalo’s forces, over 7500 people have been killed.

Sudan became independent from the British-Egyptian Condominium (the joint British and Egyptian government that ruled from 1899 to 1955) in 1956. Since then, there have been several instances of military rule —1958, 1969 and 1989 — resulting in weak democratic institutions and mutual distrust between the civil and military leaders.

Sudan is Africa’s third largest gold producer, has an estimated oil reserve of six billion barrels and is the world’s top producer of gum arabic (also known as Sudan gum), accounting for over 80 percent of global export. The lure to control the country’s immense national resources spur the armed forces to capture power and rule. This has resulted in the civil-military divide and rivalries within armed forces as each is wary of a potential rival.

Joseph Siegle, research director at the US Department of Defense’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies observed, “Gold is financing part of the conflict. It provides Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo with a deep, government-independent war chest to finance his conflict, even though the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by al-Burhan, also control many companies and economic sectors in the country.” 

Knock-on effects

The conflict in Sudan has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis with widespread displacement. The renewal of conflict has led to the adversely affected relief work and has increased the threat of a looming famine.

According to the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM), more than 700,000 people are internally displaced by the conflict which began on April 15. Dr. Arif Noor, Save the Children’s country director in Sudan, said, “The war in Sudan shows no signs of abating. In fact, it is getting worse. Millions of displaced children and families need help, now. They need food, water, shelter, clothing, medicines — the absolute basics. Children have been on the run for four months now; they have lost family members and have watched their homes and schools, places they once felt safe, become rubble. The situation is critical.”

As per United Nations (UN) estimates, over 114,000 people have entered Sudan’s neighbouring countries as refugees and more than 800,000 may leave Sudan due to the crisis. This will further exacerbate instability and extremism in the region. According to the Sydney, Australia-headquartered Institute for Economics and Peace’s annual Global Terrorism Index (GTI) for 2023, the Sahel region has emerged as the global epicentre of terrorism.

As the crisis intensifies between the army and RSF, there are reports that Russia is supporting RSF through its proxy the Wagner Group which has been active in Sudan since 2017. Russia has increased its focus on Africa’s Sahel region due to the region’s instability and rich natural resources.

According to the Geneva, Switzerland-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime [GI-TOC], “The main objective of the Russians in Sudan is not to protect the Khartoum political power, but essentially to benefit immensely from the country's mineral resources.”  

What it all means

The renewed crisis in Sudan has led not only to political instability in the region but also has global implications due to the outflow of refugees from Sudan into neighbouring countries and beyond. Also, with Russia getting involved via the Wagner Group and Sudan’s geostrategic significance, makes it imperative for the peace and stability of the region. All stakeholders should work to end the conflict between the two warring factions and restore democracy in Sudan at the earliest as a democratic and stable Sudan would be the best bulwark against instability and extremism in the region.

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