Anchored Ambitions: China’s Military Engagements in Sri Lanka

China's expanding engagement with Sri Lanka is reshaping the geopolitical contours of South Asia. As Beijing extends its footprint across the Indian Ocean towards Sri Lanka, the military engagements between the two nations have become an important aspect of China's broader regional aspirations.

The arms sales between China and Sri Lanka over the past decade (2010-2022) have been a mixed bag. There have been some consistencies in sales as well sporadic spikes that have a deeper correlation with the nations’ larger diplomatic and military ambitions. To corroborate this, the data sourced from United Nations Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA) (see Chart 1) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (see Chart 2) reveals that the peak years for these exchanges were 2016 and 2017. Specifically, China supplied Sri Lanka with a range of aircraft, reflecting a strategic decision to enhance Sri Lanka's air defence and maritime capabilities. The primary purpose of these sales is to fortify Sri Lanka’s defence infrastructure, crucial for its strategic location along vital maritime routes in the Indian Ocean. Interestingly, the two countries engaged in trade at times which strategically align with the occurrence of important political and military events.

Chart 1

Chart 2

One such recent example is when Sri Lanka received a consignment of bomb squad equipment as a grant from the Chinese military. It is not a coincidence that this event occurred just one day after the US Department of Defence commenced a training program for Sri Lanka’s airforce for enhanced protection of the island’s maritime resources. This focus on naval equipment is not arbitrary as it perfectly aligns with China’s larger plan to protect shipping lanes for oil and gas, which are crucial for China’s economy. By strengthening Sri Lanka’s maritime defence through these arms sales, China makes sure that these vital sea lanes stay open and secure from prospective “external” threats.

Consider the Hambantota Port project as another example. Sri Lanka leased the port in 2017 to China Merchant Ports Holdings Ltd for 99 years. This was a result of the new Sri Lankan government’s favourable stance on various Chinese investments in infrastructure, airports, SEZs, roadways and port development, under PM Ranil Wickremesinghe. The port’s location at the southern tip of Sri Lanka, overlooking South Asian sea lanes, makes it an invaluable asset for China.  Control over Hambantota extends beyond just commercial benefits for China, serving China’s military interests  in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as well. 

It is an understatement to say that China’s ships in Sri Lanka are a source of concern for India. Just the mere possibility of Sri Lanka ports becoming pit stops for Chinese vessels to restock supplies and refuel is viewed as a major cause of anxiety and a potential security threat that can jeopardise India’s bilateral relations with the island. Vessels like the Xiang Yang Hong 03, while ostensibly engaged in civilian, scientific research, are well capable of dual-use operations such as collecting oceanographic data that could be leveraged for military purposes. This can include collecting information on ocean currents, seabed topography and maritime conditions that could be used to plan mine warfare scenarios, among other things. Moreover, China’s gifts to the Sri Lankan navy, including frigates and warships, as a form of military diplomacy, only adds to India’s concerns. To address some of India’s concerns, Sri Lanka proceeded to impose bans on foreign vessels docking at Sri Lankan ports without prior consent. The move is indicative of Sri Lanka’s tight-rope walk of managing delicate relations with two big Asian powers.

On the diplomatic front, Chinese military delegations have been frequenting Sri Lanka, Maldives and Nepal to discuss cooperation on defence-related issues as well.  Their goal is to build a closer bond with countries in South Asia in an attempt to compete with its regional rival, India. Through these inter-delegation dialogues, countries participated in discussions pertaining to their existing military relations and regional security issues, and reached a consensus to strengthen defence cooperation between the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the respective countries’ militaries. Chinese military delegations make regular visits to such partner countries, and previous such visits were conducted in 2021 by the-then Chinese Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe for a similar purpose.

Clearly, China’s agenda in Sri Lanka is anything but linear. By blending economic and military aid, China is trying to secure its interests,but at the same time, it is also fostering dependencies. 

Sri Lanka is working on a major restructuring of its foreign loan after announcing the country’s sovereign debt default in April 2023. This is in part a result of the massive economic crisis that Sri Lanka experienced in 2022, wherein it declared bankruptcy. With this in mind, China is all set to take the opportunity. Sri Lanka finalised a ‘debt deal’ with China in October 2023, covering $4.2 billion of its outstanding debt, in addition to a $2.9 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In return, the Sri Lankan PM Dinesh Gunawardena encouraged further public and private investments from China in the fields of agriculture, renewable energy, IT and education as part of long-term solutions for the persisting economic issues. He added, “China’s support has given confidence not only to Sri Lanka but also other lending countries and international agencies to assist Sri Lanka’s process of debt restructuring,” This move by China ensures that Sri Lanka remains tied to Beijing, potentially granting itself significant influence over the island’s policies and decisions, which could align more closely with Chinese interests in the future.

China’s bold moves in Sri Lanka—spanning economic aid, military alliances, and infrastructural investments—are making waves in South Asian geopolitics. However, upon analysing the nuances of China’s tactics, one thing that is certain is that its agenda is hardly monochromatic. While attempting to alleviate Sri Lanka out of its debt crisis, it is also ensuring the country’s increased dependency on China. Similarly on the military front, while China is supplying warships, aircrafts and bombs and so on to Sri Lanka, it is also leveraging the military partnership to further its own maritime ambitions in the IOR. 

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