On July 20, 2025, in Upper House elections, the Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in coalition with Komeito, lost control of the chamber, falling three seats short of the required majority out of 248. This was a staggering electoral blow. For the first time since the LDP’s founding in 1955, the ruling coalition became a minority in both the Upper and Lower Houses, intensifying political instability.
However, Ishiba stays for now. He has insisted on remaining in office despite internal pressure, citing the need to oversee trade negotiations with the U.S. and tackle rising inflation and tariffs. He argues that appointing a successor amid turbulence would create a political vacuum, even as growing LDP factions call for new leadership.
To make matters worse, he got a bad deal. Ishiba accused the U.S. of disrespect after President Trump announced a 25% reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods, prompting friction. Meanwhile, Japan is preparing a supplementary fiscal package, which could reach ¥10 trillion ($67 billion), to cushion the economic shock, adding an extra burden to already mounting public debt. This comes just weeks after it agreed to reduce auto tariffs from 25% to 15%.
Meanwhile, the elections brought a new player into the house. The far-right populist party Sanseito (‘Japanese First’) surged from 2 to 15 upper house seats, emblematic of growing nationalist sentiment and voter disenchantment with traditional LDP rule.
With the 80th anniversary of WWII approaching on August 15, Ishiba’s likely decision to abstain from issuing a war anniversary statement further reflects his political ambivalence amid growing public expectations. As he continues in his office, the party’s internal factions are deeply divided; some demand immediate resignation, while others argue for stability in a volatile moment.
Ishiba’s ability to navigate economic hardship, fractured legislatures, and populist momentum will determine whether he remains a caretaker or a transitional figure. His embattled tenure is also more than personal political fate. It offers a window into more profound shifts in Japanese politics, where the space for centrist consensus is shrinking and nationalist alternatives are redefining the mainstream.
Tokyo’s Kabuki theatres are not the only places staging interesting acts. Let the drama unfold.