The Gold Standard | Anaemic economic cycle health

The US economic cycle is far from being healthy. TGS has not had time to comment on the US GDP data for the second quarter and the revisions to the data from 2003. But, TGS should not attempt to re-invent the wheel when the excellent Professors Menzie Chinn and James Hamilton are around. See their posts here and here for an analysis of the second quarter GDP data and the revisions to past GDP numbers. In short, the recession of 2008 looks worse now than before.

Given this, it is not a surprise that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the US has downgraded personal income estimates for 2009 and for 2010 (ht: Barry Ritholtz).

July non-farm payroll report was, on the face of it, stronger than market expectations. But, the undertone was weak. Labour force participation rate declined as did the Employment – Population Ratio. The share of the long-term unemployed (those without a job for six months or longer) remained unchanged at 44.4% and the broader unemployment rate came down just a tad to 16.1%. Overall, the labour market remains weak and fragile.


DISCLAIMER: This is an archived post from the Indian National Interest blogroll. Views expressed are those of the blogger's and do not represent The Takshashila Institution’s view.