by Shambhavi Naik, Ameya Paleja, Mihir Mahajan, Narayan Ramachandran, Sunila Dixit, Rahul Matthan, Nitin Pai and Pranay Kotasthane
India should aim to vaccinate 80% of the population by 31st December 2021. There are 4 steps in vaccine deployment: estimate demand, secure vaccine supply, choose delivery channels and conduct post-market surveillance. To achieve this target, we recommend:
- Follow and essential-first approach for estimating need: Prioritise vaccine recipients based on how essential the occupation is for managing the pandemic.
- National manufacturing of the vaccine: Obtain vaccine in adequate quantities, with local manufacturing
- Financing the vaccine: A cost-free or market-priced with DBT model can be used to finance the vaccine. We prefer the market-priced with DBT model. Depending on the vaccine, the exercise would cost INR 50,000 crores (Oxford vaccine) to INR 250,000 crores (Moderna). This accounts for roughly 0.3-1.7% of India’s GDP.
- Delivery channel: Large-scale logistics and decentralised delivery necessitate a combination of Election Commission machinery and State government’s Public Health administration.
- Post-market Surveillance: Use an Aadhaar-enabled, separate database to track vaccine recipients and adverse events.