Publications

Using Bayes’ Theorem to understand extreme opinions

The basic principle of Bayes’ Theorem is to take a set of ‘prior beliefs’ and see how they change in the face of given evidence

How have RBI’s new rules on ATM usage affected banking?

A look at the result of the curbs on minimum number of free non-home-bank ATM transactions per month

Understanding exponential growth

Fast growth is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for growth to be called exponential. For that to happen, it should follow a specific pattern

India’s best and worst telecom firms

A Mint-instaVaani survey shows that Aircel is India’s best telecom company, while the worst are Reliance Communications, MTNL and Idea

The probability of foul play in Vyapam deaths

Analysis of deaths over the past 5 years shows the number of recent deaths linked to the case is highly unusual

What the flooding of the Nile says about the Nifty

While Nifty is positively serially correlated over the very short term, if we look at slightly longer time periods, we find that the index is actually mean reverting

One year on, Modi govt performance has matched expectations: Poll

Here are the results of a survey done by Mint in partnership with Ipsos on the industry’s perception of Narendra Modi’s performance

What cross-tabulating can tell us

Reports of opinion polls seldom include insights drawn by correlating responses to two or more survey questions

Anatomy of a recession

There are several ways in which money supply can be defined. Here we will look at one such definition

The lifecycle and cost of a banknote

What is the average age of Indian currency? How often are our notes retired, and what is the cost of printing?

Confronting Pakistan’s drone challenge

The need to invest in improving anti-drone technologies  by Pranay Kotasthane (@pranaykotas) ISPR’s press release on Monday featured a few photographs of Indian border posts, reportedly taken from the drone shot down by Pakistani troops on...

Discussion Document: The India—Pakistan conflict escalation framework

The India—Pakistan conflict escalation framework Pranay Kotasthane, Pavan Srinath, Nitin Pai and Varun Ramachandra, The Takshashila Institution Download the discussion document in PDF format (339KB) Executive Summary The India—Pakistan conflict...

Time to abolish the MRP

The fixed maximum retail price is an archaic and dysfunctional mechanism that hurts both retailers and the consumers it seeks to protect.

Time to abolish the MRP

The fixed maximum retail price is an archaic and dysfunctional mechanism that hurts both retailers and the consumers it seeks to protect

When should the government subsidise training filmmakers?

There is no case for government to subsidise FTII (and, for that matter, IITs and IIMs too) One of the numerous controversies surrounding the Modi government’s appointments in the education...

Maximising the post office

Instead of hamstringing public sector banks with social schemes, it is time to transfer many of these financial tasks to India Post.

The curious case of the policy rate cut

Flexible inflation targeting will bring in transparency, accountability and predictability. The surprise policy rate cut is none of the three

How have RBI’s new rules on ATM usage affected banking?

A look at the result of the curbs on minimum number of free non-home-bank ATM transactions per month

The probability of foul play in Vyapam deaths

Analysis of deaths over the past 5 years shows the number of recent deaths linked to the case is highly unusual

Playing the Mullah Omar card

How is Mullah Omar’s reappearance (or the absence of it) likely to affect India? by Pranay Kotasthane (@pranaykotas) After the conclusion of the first official round of talks between the...

Pakistans and talks

The problem with talking to Pakistan is that there are two of them It’s happened again to yet another Indian prime minister. He’s decided to resume talks with the Pakistani...

Three parameters for evaluating global governments

What are the parameters that can help us judge the effectiveness of supra-national political unions? by Pranay Kotasthane (@pranaykotas) For about a decade now, geopolitical analysts have been discussing about the...

A democratic death knell for individual liberty

A referendum is a bad idea Caught in a political tussle with the Union government that has administrative and “superuser rights”, Delhi’s Aam Aadmi Party government has thrown up the...

India & the One Belt One Road paradigm

On how OBOR is likely to interact with India’s foreign policy by Hemant Chandak (@HemantChandak) One Belt One Road (OBOR) is an initiative the Chinese envisioned in 2013 and are...

Policy Brief — Mapping India’s response to Iran’s changing global status and regional influence

Mapping India’s response to Iran’s changing global status and regional influence Sumitha Narayanan Kutty, Scholar at the Takshashila Institution (2014—2015) Download the Policy Brief in PDF Format (1MB) Executive Summary...

Where there is no party line

Almost five years since the first stamp paper was stamped at a registrar's office in Chennai, it might be a good time to share some thoughts and experiences to deter...

How to buy a rifle

Prepare procurement plans well in advance, and have them cleared by the Cabinet, not just the services and defence ministry

The welfare state: an alibi or a mafia lord?

The welfare function of modern states has a disproportionate effect on the way citizens perceive the state. by Pranay Kotasthane (@pranaykotas) Economist Bryan Caplan in his latest EconLog post explains how the welfare function of a...

How to buy a rifle

Prepare procurement plans well in advance, and have them cleared by the Cabinet, not just the services and defence ministry

Let the women fight

Given how the armed forces struggle to attract talent, they cannot rule out hiring half the population
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