This is an excerpt from Edition 30 of MisDisMal-Information:
For the complete edition, go to: Of Whose Time Is It Anyway, IndiaAgainstPropOganda, Big Tech-lomacy
Whose time is it anyway?
Over the last few weeks, I’ve been asked this question on more that one occasion > Do internet shutdowns help in addressing information disorder as various governments claim they do?
While a part of me just wants to say:
The truth is that this isn’t a simple yes and no question. Let’s go back to the illustration I used in the last edition depicting level of obstruction v/s control over information flows, and 2 other block diagrams I like to use to illustrate how internet shutdowns play out.
We’ve established that Internet Shutdowns score high on the potential of obstruction axis, and can go a long way in control over information/narrative flows. But it is important to square that along with what happens when they are used. With the initial shock ALL information (good quality information, low quality information, misleading information) flow that requires internet connectivity is affected. But, with prolonged application or repeated usage the ‘bad actors’, that are meant to be affected, will evolve to account for such measures. And those affected will largely be your ‘average person’.So, the key questions that one needs to answer are:a) The relative costs/benefits imposed by cutting off ALL information flow over the internet for ALL people v/s disrupting the flow of ‘some’ information to a subset of people?b) And what costs are being imposed on ALL people over a period of time.
Note that here, I am referring to ‘costs’ in the economic sense – it basically boils down how much pain/disruption people are being put through.
So, let’s attempt to answer that question for Haryana. Now, we can’t measure the actual pain or economic impact, but a reasonable proxy would be to try and understand the number of hours of connectivity that have been impacted.
This is an estimate, and attempt to put some sort of quantifiable number. I am certain that it is not perfect and the methodology can be improved by smarter people. My goal was to keep this as simple as possible.
Here’s what I did.
- I took district-wise Census 2011 data for Haryana.
- From TRAI’s quarterly performance report, I took the reported number for “the number of internet subscribers per 100 people”. For the service area of Haryana (across rural and urban areas) this was ~61. Service area of Haryana excluded Gurgaon and Faridabad, which as per TRAI report sections on Teledensity are a part of the Delhi service area.
- Unfortunately, these orders weren’t diligently uploaded to the state government’s home department’s website – so I tried to piece this information together from articles (1 and 2), internetshutdowns.in and the ‘Official Twitter handle of Directorate of Information, Public Relations and Languages Department, Haryana’ [that’s right].
- I assumed 2 hours of mobile internet usage per day. This meant that for every 24 hours of internet restrictions, I assumed that 2 hours of connectivity was impacted. Industry research suggests 2-3 hours of daily internet usage.
As of writing this, the orders are in effect in 3 districts till 5 PM on Feb 5th.
So, across the various districts, between 26th January 2021 and Feburary 5th, 2021 – what was this number?
Estimate: Around 100-110 million hours of impacted connectivity in the service area of Haryana alone.
Whose time is it anyway?
In the spirit of ‘show your work’:
- Here is a published Notion Page that details the analysis.
- A Google Sheet that I used to arrive at the estimate.
Oh, and before anyone says ‘But wired connections were still working’ – they are only 1.6% of the number of internet subscribers. And you can’t even assume that every wired connection is internet enabled.Postscript: As I was writing this edition, news trickled in that the internet restrictions in Jammu and Kashmir were being revoked after 551 days.
For the complete edition, go to: Of Whose Time Is It Anyway, IndiaAgainstPropOganda, Big Tech-lomacy
