Anupam Manur was quoted in an article in Al Jazeera on the potential impact of the US election outcomes on the Indian economy.
With US unemployment at a high 8.4 percent and the country experiencing the toughest economic conditions since the Great Depression, analysts say there may be little political room for either of the two contenders to deviate from the US’s existing – and increasingly nativist – trade policies.
“India needs to recognise that a trade relationship with the US is extremely beneficial for economic growth,” Anupam Manur, a research fellow at the Takshashila Institution told Al Jazeera. “Unfortunately though, we may see nationalistic jingo and political point-scoring continue to take the upper hand”.
“Let’s remember that Biden also has a ‘Made in America’ plan and has made an effort to appear tough on China,” explained Takshashila Institution’s Manur. “His talk of subsidising industry, which is against the World Trade Organisation rules, tells me he will also be protectionist”.
As the US decouples itself from China’s economy, India is trying to take its place. Modi has pitched India as a “trusted partner” and welcomed foreign direct investment. In reality, US businesses are reluctant to leave China or disrupt their supply chains; and for the few that do, India is unlikely to be their preferred destination.
“At most, US companies are hedging, perhaps moving 30 percent of their operations to Vietnam or Laos – India is not attractive to companies yet,” said Takshashila Institution’s Manur. But the current reforms to labour and land laws, which would make it easier for foreign businesses to set up shop in India, could change that, he added.
Read the full article here.